Mortgage Minute - June 2023 ***Volume 52***

Sean Humphries - Mortgage Broker

Dominion Lending Centres - Edge Financial

sean@torontolending.ca
(647) 293-3128
https://seanhmortgages.ca/

Sean - Facebook Sean - Instagram Sean - Twitter Sean - Linkedin

Happy Father's Day!

 

Join us in honoring all the incredible dads out there this Father's Day, for their unconditional love, sacrifices, and immeasurable impact. Let's make this day a reminder to express our gratitude and affection for those who have shaped our lives in profound ways.

I'm so lucky to have an amazing Dad, and grandfather to our kids. 

This weekend we will be celebrating him, and not to mention his amazing vegetable garden and all the help with my ambitious home renovation projects.  I really couldn't do it without him.  

My Dad is the best Dad.  :)   

Happy Father's Day!



Bank of Canada Increases Rates and Threatens More

 

Well, the Bank of Canada certainly means business.  Many people predicted that the Bank would hold interest rates in June and then more seriously consider an interest rate hike in July.  Instead, the Bank of Canada announced that they have increased its key interest rate by 0.25%. The prime rate will be increased from 6.70% to 6.95%. Therefore, for those who have a variable rate mortgage, your payments may increase by about $15 per month for every $100,000 loan.  This interest rate hike increase seems to be having a similar effect as the full 1% increase from July 2022, which jolted the mindset of the market.  

It's my opinion that the Bank saw the rapidly recovering housing market, and decided that they needed to act now to slow the market.  The last thing the Bank wants is more confidence in the housing market, which is a pillar of the economy.  It sounds backwards to want a slow down in housing, but if we are going to get back down to a more manageable 2% inflation, home prices can not be taking off.  Higher home prices means higher upward pressure on wages, which are already steadily increasing 5% year over year.  

Global inflation is coming down, reflecting lower energy prices compared to a year ago, but underlying inflation still remains high. The Bank may need to continue to raise interest rates further to get inflation down to the 2% target

In the first quarter of 2023, Canada's economy was stronger than expected, with GDP growth of 3.1%. Spending on interest-sensitive goods increased and housing market activity has also picked up recently. Excess demand in the economy has been more persistent than anticipated, and there is a continued demand for labour due to higher immigration and participation rates.

CPI inflation was up to 4.4% in April, the first increase in 10 months. Prices for goods and services are higher than expected. The Bank expects inflation to ease to around 3% in the summer. However, with core inflation in the 3.5% - 4% range in the past few months and excess demand persisting, there are concerns that CPI inflation could get stuck above above the 2% target.  

Based on this, the Governing Council has decided to raise the interest rate. Reducing money supply continues to complement the interest rate, and the dynamics of core inflation and outlook for CPI inflation will continue to be assessed. The Bank remains committed to restoring price stability for Canadians and achieving the 2% inflation target.

The next Bank of Canada announcement will be on July 12, 2023.  

If you are feeling the pinch with your mortgage payments, please contact me discuss your options. 



12 ways to save money during these tough times

 

It's crucial to be mindful of your finances and find ways to save money. Here are 12 tips to help you save during these challenging times:

1. Create a budget: Develop a comprehensive budget that outlines your income and expenses. This will help you understand where your money is going and identify areas where you can cut back.

2. Cut unnecessary expenses: Review your expenses and eliminate non-essential items or services. Cancel unused subscriptions, reduce dining out, and prioritize essential purchases.

3. Cook at home: Eating out can be expensive. Instead, prepare meals at home using cost-effective ingredients. Plan your meals in advance, make a shopping list, and avoid impulse purchases.

4. Reduce energy consumption: Lower your electricity and heating bills by turning off lights when not in use, using energy-efficient appliances, adjusting your thermostat, and insulating your home.

5. Minimize entertainment expenses: Look for affordable or free entertainment options such as local community events, parks, and libraries. Take advantage of streaming services instead of expensive cable packages.

6. Shop smart: Before making a purchase, compare prices online, use coupons or discount codes, and consider buying used or secondhand items. Delay non-essential purchases to avoid impulsive buying.

7. Save on transportation: If possible, use public transportation, carpool, or walk/bike instead of driving. Maintain your vehicle properly to avoid costly repairs and conserve fuel.

8. Negotiate bills and expenses: Contact your service providers, such as internet, cable, or insurance companies, and negotiate for better rates or discounts. Many companies are willing to work with customers during tough economic times.

9.  Reduce debt: Pay off high-interest debt as quickly as possible. Prioritize your payments and consider consolidating or refinancing loans to get better interest rates.

10. Build an emergency fund: Set aside a portion of your income each month into an emergency savings account. Having a financial cushion can help you deal with unexpected expenses without going into debt.

11. Avoid unnecessary credit card debt: Minimize the use of credit cards and pay off the balance in full each month. If you must use credit, do so responsibly and consider low-interest options.

12. Increase your income: Explore ways to boost your income, such as taking up a side gig, freelancing, or monetizing a hobby. Use your skills or talents to generate additional revenue.

Remember, saving money requires discipline and conscious decision-making. By adopting these tips and making small changes to your lifestyle, you can make a significant difference in your financial well-being.



Foreclosure List in Greater Toronto Area

 

Power of Sales Toronto

Power of Sales Aurora

Power of Sales Barrie

Power of Sales Brampton

Power of Sales Clarington

Power of Sales Georgina

Power of Sales Hamilton

Power of Sales Innisfil

Power of Sales Kawartha Lakes

Power of Sales Markham

Power of Sales Milton

Power of Sales Mississauga

Power of Sales Newmarket

Power of Sales Oakville

Power of Sales Oshawa

Power of Sales Richmond Hill

Power of Sales Toronto

Power of Sales Vaughan

Power of Sales Whitby

Power of Sales Whitchurch-Stouffville



Is Your Mortgage Coming Up for Renewal?

 

If your mortgage is coming up for renewal in the next year, it might be worth a conversation to lock in a rate now.  We are seeing rates continue to go up, and if they continue to go up, it might make sense to pay a penalty to lock in a lower rate before your mortgage is up for renewal. 

Here are some options of what you can do when your mortgage term matures:

1. Renew at the existing lender

2. Switch to a new lender that is offering a lower rate or better terms

3. Increase your mortgage to pull out equity (cash) out to:   

      3a. Consolidate debts

      3b. Do renovations

      3c. Purchase a rental property   

      3d. Purchase a new primary residence.

4. Decrease (pay down) your mortgage if you have the extra cash on hand

5. Set up a home equity line of credit

6. Set up a re-advanceable mortgage to get access to equity in the future

7. Sell the house and escape the mortgage payout penalty

Please let me know if you have questions about any of these.



Fixed Rates: Up Big... For Now

 

The Bank of Canada raised interest rates by .25% last week, but the real action has been with the increase in the fixed interest rates, which have gone up by as much as .80%.

From the last Bank of Canada meeting, it was quite evident that the Bank intends on raising the interest rates further and it's not clear on when it might stop.  

The bond market has reacted accordingly.  Following the meeting fixed interest rates have started to increase for all terms.  For example, 3-year fixed rates have risen by .80% at some lenders.  The increases started a few weeks before the Bank's meeting and have conitnued in the week since.  

Instead of moving in lockstep with the Bank of Canada's rates, the fixed rate terms are much more volatile, and can have big swings within a matter of weeks.  Fixed rates are determined based on projections of future Bank of Canada interest rates, rather than the current policy.  The current belief is that the Bank of Canada's policy rate will need to be higher for longer than initially predicted, and this is pushing fixed interest rates higher than we've seen in a very long time.  

A popular narrative about six weeks ago was that the Bank of Canada would consider decreasing the policy rate by the end of 2023.  That idea has been squashed, and the prospect of a near-term rate decrease seems far fetched.  I don't think we will see a rate decrease from the Bank of Canada until the second half of 2024.  

The next swing in fixed interest rates will largely depend on the market's confidence that the Bank of Canada rate will keep rates high.  The Bank is working hard at confirming that it will keep rates high for as long as needed to bring inflation back down to the 2% target.  Since the fixed rates are largely based on predictions and speculation, I expect that news of a slowing economy in Canada and the US will bring the short term interest rates down again.  

When we look at the different parts of the economy that are sensitive to changes in interest rates, like manufacturing, construction, real estate, financial services, retail, and wholesale sectors, we see that they didn't do so well in March. They actually shrank by 0.3 percent compared to the previous month. And this has been happening quite often recently, with 11 out of the past 12 months showing either no growth or a decrease in these areas. Last year, around this time, there was a positive trend of one percent, but now it has swung the other way and is at minus 1.5 percent, which is the lowest it has been since June 2020.

It seems like this data is being ignored in favour of more headline grabbing statistics like the housing market recovery and consumer purchases.  

My original prediction was that the Bank of Canada would not be raising rates in June or July this year, but instead continue to talk the economy down and threaten to keep rates higher.  I believe this would have been the right approach considering that the previous interest rate hikes are still working their way through the economy.  I believe that the Bank has already surpassed the "goldilocks" rate of a balanced economy, which will become evident before the end of 2023, as we stare down a deeper recession than necessary.  

If more of these factors start to become evident over the next few weeks and months, expect fixed rates to come back down to earth in anticipation of the Bank of Canada lowering the policy rate.  



Mortgage Minute - March 2023 ***Volume 51***

Sean Humphries - Mortgage Broker

Dominion Lending Centres - Edge Financial

sean@torontolending.ca
(647) 293-3128
https://seanhmortgages.ca/

Sean - Facebook Sean - Instagram Sean - Twitter Sean - Linkedin

Foreclosure List in Greater Toronto Area

 

Power of Sales Toronto

Power of Sales Aurora

Power of Sales Barrie

Power of Sales Brampton

Power of Sales Clarington

Power of Sales Georgina

Power of Sales Hamilton

Power of Sales Innisfil

Power of Sales Kawartha Lakes

Power of Sales Markham

Power of Sales Milton

Power of Sales Mississauga

Power of Sales Newmarket

Power of Sales Oakville

Power of Sales Oshawa

Power of Sales Richmond Hill

Power of Sales Toronto

Power of Sales Vaughan

Power of Sales Whitby

Power of Sales Whitchurch-Stouffville



Should You Contribute to Your TFSA or RRSP in 2023?

 

The main benefit of an RRSP is the ability to defer taxes. This is because any contributions you make (18% of your 2022 income, subject to a maximum limit of $30,780) can be used to reduce your taxable income. Depending on your income bracket, this can result in significant savings.

A good reason to prioritize RRSP contributions is if you are currently in a high tax bracket.

Read the RSP Article



What's Happening with Rates?

 

The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its current interest rate in April.

Canada's inflation rate continues to cool, with the February Consumer Price Index falling more than expected to 5.2% from 5.9% in January. While inflation has slowed in recent months, prices remain elevated, particularly in the food sector, where supply constraints and higher input costs continue to put upward pressure on grocery prices.

However, shelter costs have risen at a slower pace year-over-year for the third consecutive month, reflecting a general cooling of the housing market.  

It feels to me like the housing market is starting to pick up steam.  There is a sense of urgency with buyers to make offers before the market starts to accelerate this Spring.  

The steadiness of the Bank of Canada's interest rate policy decisions have given confidence to real estate buyers and sellers that the cost of their mortgage will not rise dramatically.  We can expect to see some positive news for the number of transactions that happen in March 2023.  Prices won't be at 2022 levels, but price appreciation will go up from previous months.  

Things are starting to break in the US, with three regional banks having failed this month.  This has caused the markets to anticipate more fear and panic.  The result is lower fixed rates as markets predict the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada will need to reduce policy rates sooner rather than later.  

The Bank of Canada is no doubt pleased with Canada's relatively low inflation rate compared to other countries, and will likely remain in pause mode when they meet again in April.  I still don't think we will have any Bank of Canada policy rate reductions in 2023.  



Limited Seating Available - First-Time Homebuyer Webinar

 

I'm excited to invite you to an upcoming First-Time Homebuyer webinar that I'm hosting on Thursday April 20th at 7:00. This is a must-attend event for anyone considering purchasing their first home in the near future.

Space is very limited.  Click here to Secure your Seat Now

In this webinar, I will be reviewing the process of getting a mortgage in an easy to understand and accessible format. We'll also be discussing whether now is a good time to buy, how much the bank will lend, how much down payment you should have, and how much the closing costs, including Land Transfer Tax, will be.

We are limiting the number of seats to this event to allow for questions.  Click here to Register Now  Feel free to share with any friends or family. 

If you're not able to attend the webinar, no problem! You can book a meeting with me by booking a meeting in my calendar here: https://www.vyte.in/seanhmortgages/30

Don't miss out on this valuable opportunity to learn about the home buying process and get your questions answered. Register now to reserve your seat!



BNN Bloomberg TV Appearance

 

I had the privilege of being a guest on BNN Bloomberg's The Close in January and February.  The first time I was in studio, and it was quite an experience.

The show is tape in the old Much Music building on Queen St. W, and yes the wheels are still spinning on the CityNews truck that is on the side of the building.

I got the opportunity to talk about the market and my predictions about interest rates and the real estate market.  

Check out my appearance from February. 



March Break Getaway

 

Over March break, my family and I had an amazing adventure exploring the sunny beaches and turquoise waters of the Caribbean. Our trip began with a couple of days in Cocoa Beach, Florida, where we lounged on the sand and enjoyed the beautiful ocean view. Then, we embarked on a 7-day cruise aboard the Norwegian Escape, visiting incredible destinations such as the Dominican Republic, US Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, and the Bahamas.

Our cruise began with a thrilling visit to the Damajagua waterfalls in the Dominican Republic, where we ziplined through the jungle and jumped off waterfalls. We also visited Saint Thomas, US Virgin Islands, where we took a gondola ride to the top of Paradise Point, and Tortola, British Virgin Islands, where we enjoyed a scenic ride through the countryside to a secluded beach.

In the Bahamas, we spent a relaxing day lounging on the beach and soaking up the sun. Back on the cruise ship, we enjoyed an entertaining show called "Choir of Man" that kept us laughing. Throughout the trip, we were amazed by the natural beauty and unique culture of each destination we visited.

Overall, the trip was an unforgettable experience, filled with adventure, relaxation, and quality time with family. We returned home feeling rejuvenated and grateful for the memories we made together.



Mortgage Minute - February 2023 ***Volume 50***

Sean Humphries - Mortgage Broker

Dominion Lending Centres - Edge Financial

sean@torontolending.ca
(647) 293-3128
https://seanhmortgages.ca/

Sean - Facebook Sean - Instagram Sean - Twitter Sean - Linkedin

Centre Ice

 

Of course it wouldn't be a trip to Maple Leaf Gardens without checking out where centre ice used to be.  The kids couldn't believe that the a grocery store used to be where the Leafs played.

It was really interesting to see all of the old photos of the Leafs and what the building used to look like.  

If you're ever down on Carlton St., I recommend going in and checking it out. 



What a save!

 

My daughter got the opportunity to play at Mattamy Home Arena (Maple Leaf Gardens) on Sunday, and she played as the goalie.  

It is really exciting watching the team, and even though they lost she still played great.  

After every game, win or lose, the team will skate towards the blueline and do the polar bear slide.  

She's having a great time playing on the team.



US and Canada Taking Different Approaches to Interest Rate Policy

 

Despite the close economic ties between the US and Canada, their central banks are taking different approaches to interest rate policy.  Although typically in lockstep for rate decisions, we are getting very different messages from the Fed and BoC.  

In the US, the Federal Reserve is talking about continuing to increase interest rates until they have beat inflation into submission.  The opposite is true for the Bank of Canada, as they are now worried about overshooting the sweet spot for interest rates and are in danger of grinding the economy to a halt. 

How could that be?  Shouldn’t the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve be in lockstep?  You would think since our economies are tightly woven together that the Bank of Canada would be at the mercy of the powerful Fed and the mammoth US economy when it comes to rate policy.  It turns out that it’s not that simple.   

The word on the street was that the Fed had plans for a .25% interest rate hike at the next two policy meetings before pausing to evaluate.  Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that if a strong labour market continues higher interest rates will be necessary.  The 517,000 US jobs added in January are a direct threat to the Federal Reserve’s inflation targets.  That being said, the US employment rate is at a 53-year-low, and quite possibly beyond “maximum employment”.  There’s not a lot of room to squeeze out more jobs.  There’s not a lot of room for the economy to expand further.  A slowdown of the economy with higher unemployment is quite likely and would certainly aid in the Fed’s aim to get inflation back on target.  

Shouldn’t Canada be in a similar situation?  Canada added 104,000 full-time jobs in December, which prompted the Bank of Canada to increase interest rates by .25%.  StatsCan released another report this week, that the Canadian economy added another 150,000 jobs in January!  Earlier this year, Tiff Macklem stated that the hot job market is running counter to the efforts of the Bank of Canada, and that continued wage inflation of 4-5% will force the Bank's hand, and higher rates will be inevitable.  

 A looming factor is that Canadians took on more debt since the housing crisis of 2008, when Americans were deleveraging through that period.  Couple that with the fact that we have much shorter mortgage terms.  Typically Canadians will take on mortgage terms of five years or less.  The US has mortgage terms in the 25 to 30 year range.  Not only do we have more debt per person, but because of shorter mortgage terms, we’re much more susceptible to swings in interest rates since we reset our rates much more frequently. 

The Governor of Canada, Tiff Macklem, is aware of these factors, and knows that overshooting on the policy rate in Canada would be much more dangerous to the health of the economy than it would be if the Federal reserve were to overshoot on their policy rates.  For now the Bank of Canada is on pause, but in my opinion we can not continue to see wage inflation and job numbers like this for too much longer without the Bank of Canada reversing course and hiking rates.  Ultimately, Macklem said it could take up to two years for Canadians to see the full impact of the interest rate increases.

In conclusion, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada have different perspectives on interest rate policy and are taking different approaches to managing the economy. The Federal Reserve's plans to continue raising interest rates are driven by its aim to beat inflation, while the Bank of Canada is concerned about overshooting and stalling the economy. Despite the close economic ties between the US and Canada, each central bank must consider the unique factors affecting their respective countries and the mindsets of the citizens.



What's Happening with Rates?

 

As of Wednesday January 25th, the prime rate is now 6.70%.  The Bank is now satisfied with their current rate policy, and will watch it work its way through the economy before making any further changes.  

For purchases over $1M and all refinances, five-year variable rate discounts are unchanged and currently sit at about 6.30%.  The five-year fixed rates are falling and currently sit at approximately 4.99%.

For purchases under $1M with less than 20% down, the five-year variable rate discount is holding steady at Prime minus .90%, but the overall rate has gone up because of the prime rate increase (5.80%) and five-year fixed rates are at 4.64%, with more lenders lowering rates this week. 

For rental properties, expect a premium on the rate no matter the purchase price, lowest rate options are approximately Prime minus .40% or 4.99% for five-year fixed rates.  Expect higher rental rates for borrowers with large rental portfolios that need to squeeze out as much borrowing power as possible.  

Alternative lender rates are north of 6% with fees of 1-2%.  Private lenders rates are 7-9% or more for 1st mortgages, and 2nd mortgages are in the 9-12% range.  Expect fees of 4%+.  

If your renewal is coming up, many people are opting for shorter term fixed rates like the 3-year term instead of the 5-year fixed or the 5-year variable rate.  Feel free to ask me if you think that’s the right option for you. 

For a detailed analysis of the rates from the last year, check out my Instagram post: An interest rate analysis.



Foreclosure List in Greater Toronto Area

 

Power of Sales Toronto

Power of Sales Aurora

Power of Sales Barrie

Power of Sales Brampton

Power of Sales Clarington

Power of Sales Georgina

Power of Sales Hamilton

Power of Sales Innisfil

Power of Sales Kawartha Lakes

Power of Sales Markham

Power of Sales Milton

Power of Sales Mississauga

Power of Sales Newmarket

Power of Sales Oakville

Power of Sales Oshawa

Power of Sales Richmond Hill

Power of Sales Toronto

Power of Sales Vaughan

Power of Sales Whitby

Power of Sales Whitchurch-Stouffville



Visualizing Canada's Population Density

 

I can't seem to get enough of this site called https://www.visualcapitalist.com 

This week they posted the visual density patterns for six different countries, including Canada.  https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/population-density-patterns-countries/ 

Here's the summary that they provided on Canada: 

In Canada, the Rocky Mountains to the west and freezing cold temperatures in the center and north account for the large country’s relative emptiness.

Though population spikes in Western Canada are growing rapidly, highly populous urban centers are noticeably concentrated along the St. Lawrence River, with the Greater Toronto Area accounting for more than one-sixth of the country’s 39 million people.

There wasn't any huge surprises here.  Very few people live in the north compared to along the border and the St. Lawrence river.  

There's some really cool visualizations on the site.  It's well worth your time, if you like this sort of thing.  



Mortgage Minute - January 2023 ***Volume 49***

Sean Humphries - Mortgage Broker

Dominion Lending Centres - Edge Financial

sean@torontolending.ca
(647) 293-3128
https://seanhmortgages.ca/

Sean - Facebook Sean - Instagram Sean - Twitter Sean - Linkedin

What's Happening with Rates?

 

Heading into 2023, rates are remarkably higher than anyone would have predicted at the outset of 2022.  Fixed rates are now lower than variable rates and borrowers are flocking to short term fixed rates to try to shorten the amount of time spent in higher than necessary mortgage fixed rates.  

Variable rates, once the darlings of the mortgage world have fallen out of favour for anyone looking for more stability.  In most cases, I would recommend a five-year variable rate over locking into a five-year fixed rate.  Rates will come down eventually and the penalty to get out of a five-year fixed rate early makes switching untenable. 

For purchases over $1M and all refinances, five-year rates are currently about 6.05% for variables and 5.24% to 5.89% for fixed rates.  For purchases under $1M with less than 20% down, the five-year variable rate is Prime minus .90% (5.55%) and five-year fixed rates are 4.99% to 5.19%.  For rental properties, expect a premium on the rate no matter the purchase price, lowest rate options are approximately Prime minus .40% or 5.39% for five-year fixed rates.  Expect higher rental rates for borrowers with large rental portfolios that need to squeeze out as much borrowing power as possible.  

Alternative lender rates are north of 6% with fees of 1-2%.  Private lenders rates are 7-9% or more for 1st mortgages, and 2nd mortgages are in the 9-12% range.  Expect fees of 4%+.  

If your renewal is coming up, ask me if you qualify for the 3-year fixed rate mortgage at 4.99% or the five-year variable rate at prime minus .90%.  All costs to switch are covered.



Raptors Game Action

 

The kids are getting old enough now that they are actively campaigning on who gets to go tot the Raptors games.  

We had a great time cheering and trying to get on the jumbotron, and of course we crushed a large bag of popcorn.  Hardly any was left for her brother.  

We left a bit early since Dad needs to get to bed early.  



Housing Affordability Continued to Deteriorate in the Second Half of 2022

 

Despite declining home prices, higher interest rates continued to erode housing affordability in the third quarter.

National Bank of Canada’s Housing Affordability Monitor deteriorated for its seventh consecutive quarter, making this the longest run of worsening affordability since the 11-quarter streak from 1986 to 1989.

“The magnitude of the deterioration, however, is much more pronounced this time (25.5 percentage points vs. 20.2 percentage points in the 1980s,” the report’s authors wrote. “As a result, the mortgage on a representative home in Canada now takes 67.3% of income to service, the most since 1981.”

In the higher-priced markets of Greater Vancouver and Toronto, mortgage servicing costs now require 102% and 93%, respectively, of the median household income.

While declining home prices are mitigating the erosion in affordability, the 75-bps worth of Bank of Canada rate hikes delivered in the quarter sent the benchmark mortgage rate to its highest level since 2010.

“To give an idea of the scale, all else being equal, a 75-bps increase represents an extra $300 (or an 8.1% increase) on the monthly mortgage payment for a representative home in Canada,” the report reads.

Read the full article from Canadian Mortgage Trends: Housing Affordability Continued to Deteriorate



Foreclosure List in Greater Toronto Area

 

Power of Sales Toronto

Power of Sales Aurora

Power of Sales Barrie

Power of Sales Brampton

Power of Sales Clarington

Power of Sales Georgina

Power of Sales Hamilton

Power of Sales Innisfil

Power of Sales Kawartha Lakes

Power of Sales Markham

Power of Sales Milton

Power of Sales Mississauga

Power of Sales Newmarket

Power of Sales Oakville

Power of Sales Oshawa

Power of Sales Richmond Hill

Power of Sales Toronto

Power of Sales Vaughan

Power of Sales Whitby

Power of Sales Whitchurch-Stouffville



Let's go Cruising

 

Before Christmas we hopped aboard the biggest cruise ship in the world, the Wonder of the Seas for some much deserved rest and relaxation. 

We visited Bahamas and two destinations in Mexico: Cozumel and Puerto Costa Maya where we checked out some Mayan ruins.  

We had a great time on the cruise and at the destinations.  We saw a SpaceX rocket launch in Cape Canaveral at Cocoa Beach before we set sail.  It was pretty amazing to witness.

In typical Humphries family fashion we were delayed leaving on our flight.  Our flight was cancelled and then delayed and we didn't get home until 4:30am on Christmas eve (really Christmas morning by that point).  Our luggage made it home the next day after I waited in line for five hours at the airport. 

All in all, it was a great experience, and I can't wait to do it again!  



These are the Stat Holidays for Ontario 2023

 

Stat holidays in Ontario for 2023 are mostly the same as previous years. Currently, there are no days off in lieu if the stat holiday falls on a weekend.  

Here are the stat holidays in Ontario for 2023:

Monday, January 2 (in lieu of New Year's Day falling on a Sunday)

Monday, February 20 (Family Day)

Friday, April 7 (Good Friday)

Monday, April 10 (Easter Monday. Many businesses are also closed on this day, however, it is not an official stat holiday)

Monday, May 22 (Victoria Day)

Saturday, July 1 (Canada Day)

Monday, September 4 (Labour Day)

Monday, October 9 (Thanksgiving Day)

Monday, December 25 (Christmas Day) Tuesday, December 26 (Boxing Day) 

Monday, August 7 is a Civic Holiday. While it is not an official stat holiday, employers may decide to give their employees the day off. 

National Day for Truth and Reconciliation falls on September 30 and while it's not technically a stat holiday in Ontario either many employers give their staff a holiday on this day as well.



Mortgage Minute - December 2022 ***Volume 48***

Sean Humphries - Mortgage Broker

Dominion Lending Centres - Edge Financial

sean@torontolending.ca
(647) 293-3128
https://seanhmortgages.ca/

Sean - Facebook Sean - Instagram Sean - Twitter Sean - Linkedin

The Humphries Family is Ready for Christmas!

 

We're not getting ready, we're ready all the time!  The countdown to Santa coming starts at day 364 in the Humphries household.  

This year, we managed to get all of our wrapping done and Christmas cards sent last week.  We even got the baking done early this year... although we may need to bake some more... It doesn't seem to last!

Are you ready for Christmas this year?  Or is it sneaking up on you, like it usually does for me?



Time is Money - An Interest Rate Comparison

 

At the December 7th meeting, the Bank of Canada is officially done rising rates … for this year, that is.

As expected, the BoC raised the overnight lending rate by a relatively modest 0.50%. 📈 This increases variable mortgage rates by $25 for every $100K of mortgage, so an $800K mortgage will increase by $200/month 👉 Justifying their decision, the Bank pointed to high global and broadly-based inflation as the primary reason for the continued policy rate increase.

What was interesting in this report is that there was no mention of “higher interest rates being required in the future.” This leads me to believe that the Bank feels that they are done for now. They believe that the economy will be flat through the end of this year and the first half of next year. Future rate hikes are not off the table, but they are now in wait-and-see mode.

Has the Bank gone too far? Do you think we have seen the last of the rate hikes? Let me know what you think!



Goonies and Christmas Story Houses Up for Sale!

 

I love movies and the idea of owning a little movie history. Both the Goonies and the Christmas Story houses are up for sale!

The Christmas Story house is located in Cleveland, Ohio and the price is 'confidential'. 

The Goonies House is located in Astoria, Oregon is listed for 1.7mil USD. Apparently, the neighbor's house is listed for $500K + so we know this has to be overvalued by a cool million. 

Article to the Christmas Story house: Click Here

Article for the Goonies House Click here



Collecting Toys for Toy Mountain

 

As one of Santa’s elves (yes, I’ve worked with Will Ferrell at THE North Pole), I’m thrilled to be hosting a toy drive to help @ctvtoymountain and @salarmyon “bring a Christmas to thousands of kids in the GTA.” With financial uncertainty facing so many families in our communities, one thing we can be sure of is a merry and bright holiday season made possible by the kindness and generosity we show to others.

With the help of so many people, I've helped to collect over 100 toys this year!  

🎁 To help build a mountain of toys, visit: Salvation Army Toy Mountain 2022

The campaign kicks off November 18 and wraps up with a finale on December 16



Foreclosure List in Greater Toronto Area

 

Power of Sales Toronto

Power of Sales Aurora

Power of Sales Barrie

Power of Sales Brampton

Power of Sales Clarington

Power of Sales Georgina

Power of Sales Hamilton

Power of Sales Innisfil

Power of Sales Kawartha Lakes

Power of Sales Markham

Power of Sales Milton

Power of Sales Mississauga

Power of Sales Newmarket

Power of Sales Oakville

Power of Sales Oshawa

Power of Sales Richmond Hill

Power of Sales Toronto

Power of Sales Vaughan

Power of Sales Whitby

Power of Sales Whitchurch-Stouffville



Canada's Foreign Buyer Ban Starts January 1, 2023

 

In just under three weeks, the Federal Government of Canada's new Foreign Buyer rules come into effect in an effort to cool what was a very hot countrywide housing market.

Canada will ban foreign nationals from buying homes starting January 2023 – with notable exemptions for permanent residents and temporary residents, including temporary workers and international students.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the ban on foreign ownership of homes is needed to curb house prices in Canada and prevent them from rising so high as to push working-class and young Canadians out of the real estate market.

“We will make the market fairer for Canadians,” said Freeland. “We will prevent foreign investors from parking their money in Canada by buying up homes. We will make sure that houses are being used as homes for Canadian families rather than as a speculative financial asset class.” 



Mortgage Minute - November 2022 ***Volume 47***

Sean Humphries - Mortgage Broker

Dominion Lending Centres - Edge Financial

sean@torontolending.ca
(647) 293-3128
https://seanhmortgages.ca/

Sean - Facebook Sean - Instagram Sean - Twitter Sean - Linkedin

Upcoming Webinars

 

I'm going to be speaking at two webinars this week!  We're going to be discussing what is happening in the market, and how to best navigate the current interest rates and housing market.  

I hope you can join me!

Homebuying in the GTA Webinar  With rising interest rates, property value swings and changes in market dynamics, it's no wonder everyone is confused!  With Rachana Bhomavat from Royal LePage Signature. Register for Saturday November 5th at 10:00am


What the $&%@ is going on with the market?  We will be answering your burning questions about Toronto’s current real estate market, sharing what we’ve been experiencing first-hand, and what to expect from interest rates going forward into 2023.  With Suzanne Lewis from Lewis + Company. Register for Monday November 7th at 7:00pm



Remembrance Day

 

This year as we draw closer to Remembrance Day, let us make sure we really do think of and remember those brave men and women who courageously sacrificed so much for our freedom.



Foreclosure List in Greater Toronto Area

 

Power of Sales Toronto

Power of Sales Aurora

Power of Sales Barrie

Power of Sales Brampton

Power of Sales Clarington

Power of Sales Georgina

Power of Sales Hamilton

Power of Sales Innisfil

Power of Sales Kawartha Lakes

Power of Sales Markham

Power of Sales Milton

Power of Sales Mississauga

Power of Sales Newmarket

Power of Sales Oakville

Power of Sales Oshawa

Power of Sales Richmond Hill

Power of Sales Toronto

Power of Sales Vaughan

Power of Sales Whitby

Power of Sales Whitchurch-Stouffville



Halloween Candy For Sale!

 

Our kids are willing to sell us their Halloween candy, and apparently it’s a seller’s market.  They collected so much candy!  

Bids start at no less than $90, with one seller demanding $1,000 or more for her stock. Before we make an offer, we’d like to ask what the current market value of similar sweets is....  They're driving a hard bargain!



Time is Money - An Interest Rate Comparison

 

Yes, it now costs that much more to borrow money in Canada.

This means with the same parameters, buyers are qualifying for less and paying more for the mortgages they are able to get. However, it’s not all bad news heading into the final stretch of 2022.

The good news is that the Bank of Canada’s latest Policy Rate increase reflects a more balanced approach, and for good reason. With a recession looming, it’s time for our government to ease up on economic intervention in favour of respecting the Canadian citizens who will carry the burden of downstream effects for years to come.



So you're telling me there's a chance.

 

The Bank of Canada clearly said in their press release that there would need to be further rate hikes in order to combat inflation.  It was also mentioned that any future rate hikes would be data-dependent. 

Channelling my inner-Lloyd Christmas, it felt like we were going to be given a chance to have some clarity and stability in the rates, and that the days of massive rate hikes were in the past. 

The chances may be one-in-a-million, but it felt like some stability in the rates might be the news that prospective homeowners would need to get off the fence and get the housing market back on the rails. 

I’ve got my fingers crossed for the housing market to get back on track in the Spring.  Yeah! 



Mortgage Minute - October 2022 ***Volume 46***

Sean Humphries - Mortgage Broker

Dominion Lending Centres - Edge Financial

sean@torontolending.ca
(647) 293-3128
https://seanhmortgages.ca/

Sean - Facebook Sean - Instagram Sean - Twitter Sean - Linkedin

Canada's Foreign Buyer Ban Starts January 1, 2023

 

In just under 3 months, the Federal Government of Canada's new Foreign Buyer rules come into effect in an effort to cool a very hot countrywide housing market.

Canada will ban foreign nationals from buying homes starting January 2023 – with notable exemptions for permanent residents and temporary residents, including temporary workers and international students.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the ban on foreign ownership of homes is needed to curb house prices in Canada and prevent them from rising so high as to push working-class and young Canadians out of the real estate market.

“We will make the market fairer for Canadians,” said Freeland. “We will prevent foreign investors from parking their money in Canada by buying up homes. We will make sure that houses are being used as homes for Canadian families rather than as a speculative financial asset class.” 



Foreclosure List in Greater Toronto Area

 

Power of Sales Toronto

Power of Sales Aurora

Power of Sales Barrie

Power of Sales Brampton

Power of Sales Clarington

Power of Sales Georgina

Power of Sales Hamilton

Power of Sales Innisfil

Power of Sales Kawartha Lakes

Power of Sales Markham

Power of Sales Milton

Power of Sales Mississauga

Power of Sales Newmarket

Power of Sales Oakville

Power of Sales Oshawa

Power of Sales Richmond Hill

Power of Sales Toronto

Power of Sales Vaughan

Power of Sales Whitby

Power of Sales Whitchurch-Stouffville



Cost of Rent now Outweighs Cost of Home Ownership

 

In some neighbourhoods, the cost of renting a home now outweighs the cost of home ownership.  With further pressure on the rental market, expect this trend to continue.

The shelter cost pendulum has swung swiftly and decisively in this direction.  I expect that we will see more would-be homeowners bite the bullet and pay higher rates in order to get into a home that would have been out of budget a few short months ago.  

Did you know at one point in the not so distance past we didn’t have the Toronto land transfer tax or the stress test or the foreign buyer’s tax?  When all of these factors were introduced there was a considerable and short-lived downturn in the market.  The sky was falling. And then something magical happened... the market recovered.  

A potential new homeowner will only evaluate their current situation and their current purchasing power.  They won’t consider that their income could have qualified them for a higher mortgage before the stress test, or they didn’t need to pay the land transfer tax once-upon-a-time.  

These higher rates will soon pass, and as soon as the shock of higher rates wears off, people will return to purchasing homes.  It’s the more practical solution.  



Harvesting Potatoes!

 

The family tradition continues! 

Each year the Humphries family get together to harvest potatoes at my parent's house.  

There was 15 of us out there ranging from 4 to 69-years old!  My four-year old niece picked up more potatoes than anyone, and even got the biggest one.   

We harvested four and a half bushels, and my Dad did another one by himself in the last couple of weeks. 

French Fries, anyone?

Bonus Dad Joke:

Who is the most powerful potato

Darth Tater



Dad, I killed it out there.

 

My daughter started in the Leaside Wildcats learn-to-play program this week.  

I was blown away by how amazing the program is.  There are at least as many volunteer coaches as there are skaters.  If your daughter is interested in hockey, this is a great program to get them started in.  The volunteers are from a girl's team and they are very supportive of the participants.  I highly recommend it.  

After the first practice, she came off the ice and told me: "Dad, I killed it out there."  



Why are Rates Going up?

 

Why are rates going up so much? 

As prices for goods across the world continue to go up (caused by increased gas and oil shortages, reduced food supply and pandemic supply chain pressures), it creates an expectation that prices will continue to rise rapidly in the future. 

Policy makers at the world’s central banks are worried that these expectations will get “baked in” to the consumers’ mindset, which will incite labour forces to demand to be paid much more to pay for these goods. 

Since demand will not decline it will push the cost of goods up. Which will then again put pressure on the labour market to make more money to pay for these goods. It causes a never ending cycle of price increases and labour costs which devalues the country’s currency. Without a stable currency, the country’s banking system is at risk of collapse.  If that happens, we’re all in trouble.  

As a result, borrowing costs are expected to continue rising as most of the world’s big central banks rush to combat inflation by increasing their policy rate.  In Canada, we call this rate the overnight lending rate or simply the policy rate.  

With the expectation of short-term rate increases, and with it, the very real prospect of a recession, investors are putting their money into safe havens like the US dollar and bonds with guaranteed returns.  In turn, this pushes the price of bonds up as more people want the guaranteed return.  This raises the prices of the fixed mortgage rates (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7 and 10-year fixed terms) since the asset classes are related. 

Subsequently, The S&P 500 hit its weakest level since Nov. 30 2020 as investors shy away from stocks in favour of protecting their portfolios with guaranteed returns in the bond market.  Expect this trend to continue.  



Mortgage Minute - September 2022 ***Volume 45***

Sean Humphries - Mortgage Broker

Dominion Lending Centres - Edge Financial

sean@torontolending.ca
(647) 293-3128
https://seanhmortgages.ca/

Sean - Facebook Sean - Instagram Sean - Twitter Sean - Linkedin

Back to School!!!

 

To say that we are excited is an understatement.  

Here is the evidence: Back to School Video on Facebook.  

The kids are in grade five and grade seven!  This is the first year that we weren't allowed (by them) to drop them off at school.  We said we would stand quietly across the street in disguises but they weren't going for it...  Maybe next year!  



Foreclosure List in Greater Toronto Area

 

Power of Sales Toronto

Power of Sales Aurora

Power of Sales Barrie

Power of Sales Brampton

Power of Sales Clarington

Power of Sales Georgina

Power of Sales Hamilton

Power of Sales Innisfil

Power of Sales Kawartha Lakes

Power of Sales Markham

Power of Sales Milton

Power of Sales Mississauga

Power of Sales Newmarket

Power of Sales Oakville

Power of Sales Oshawa

Power of Sales Richmond Hill

Power of Sales Toronto

Power of Sales Vaughan

Power of Sales Whitby

Power of Sales Whitchurch-Stouffville



I met Ryan Serhant from Million Dollar Listing New York

 

...or he met me!  Whichever way you want to frame it.  There was a picture taken.

Ryan was the guest speaker at the Royal LePage Signature Realty Fall Kick-off.  

He was gracious enough to do a photo-op with us ahead of the event.  

His speech included some good advice including "Be the CEO of your Life" and his main job in life is to "brand and expand".  



What's Happening with Rates?

 

The new Prime rate is now… (checks notes) 5.45%.  Variable rates are approximately 5.00% and fixed rates are approximately 5.29%.  

Fixed rates did not move as a result of the Bank’s announcement.  It is only variable rates that are affected.  

Many borrowers are now qualifying for mortgages with a stress test rate of 7.00% (the contract rate plus 2.00%).  Canadians have not qualified at rates this high since around 2001.  The average Toronto home at that time was about $266K and the average full-time income was $51K.  Ah, the days when the average income could purchase the average home.



My Analysis of the Bank of Canada Interest Rate Hike

 

The Bank of Canada increased the Overnight Lending rate by .75%.  Banks immediately increased their prime rates by the same amount. 

Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) payments are affected.  The mortgage payment will change in lockstep with the interest rate hikes, unlike Variable Rate mortgages where payments do not change.   ARM payments will increase by $39 for every $100K, meaning that a mortgage of $700K will increase by $273/month.

All pre-approved variable mortgage rates will also increase.  You can not lock in a prime rate on a pre-approved mortgage.  The rate goes up and the qualifying rate increases.  Meaning any pre-approved borrower has had their purchasing power decrease by 6-8%.  

The Bank of Canada has hoped for a soft landing for the economy, but their actions and words say that they’re not worried about that.  In their press release they mention the need for further interest rate hikes to calm inflation. 

Since the BoC announcement, Canada's economy shed jobs for the third month in a row in August, losing a net 39,700 jobs, entirely in full-time work, Statistics Canada said on Friday. The jobless rate climbed to 5.4%.

During the announcement, the Bank of Canada referenced a survey that states that short term inflation expectations are still up, despite sharp price reductions in oil and gas, a return to normal prices for wheat, soy and other foods.  Used car prices have also come off their peak.  They reference that natural gas prices have increased as a justification for interest rate hikes.  Russia is a major producer of natural gas, and they have cut off some countries, which will force the price to increase since the supply is cut.  No amount of interest rate hikes will increase natural gas supply.  

Further to their reasoning, the BoC mentions that although gas prices are coming down, other services are still elevated, meaning that inflation will continue to rise.  I think it’s a bit flawed, because many services and products are based on the cost of production, and a big portion of that is the cost of gas and transportation.  We will see softening in the prices as the lower gas prices absorb into those goods and services.  

The way it has been explained to me is that entrenched inflation is much worse overall than a recession.  Inflation is a long-term and prevailing problem.  A recession is not.  

The next Bank of Canada meetings are on Wednesday, October 26, 2022 and Wednesday, December 7, 2022.  Mark them in your calendar and watch this space for predictions and guidance.  Right now the market is predicting another 50 BPS hike in October, and then that will be it for the year.  

What’s your opinion?  Is this when the economy throws on the brakes and causes the Bank of Canada to revert course?  Have they gone too far? 

The ground is moving for many borrowers.  I’m here to help.  Please reach out if you need help with your mortgage financing needs.  



Trigger Rates are Here for Some

 

I’ve spoken to a few different clients who choose a variable rate mortgage between March 2020 and March 2020, and some their mortgages have hit their trigger points.  Others have not, but will with another rate increase.  

The trigger point happens when the interest rate has risen on a variable rate mortgage and the static payment now doesn't cover the required interest.  

It seemed so far-fetched a few short months ago that we would approach these rates in 2022, but here we are.  

For most variable rate borrowers that have hit their trigger points, their bank will automatically increase their payments in order to cover the interest deficiency in their payment.  

These borrowers are now not paying any money towards their principal.  They may also consider putting a lump sum payment or increase their mortgage payments further in order to pay down their mortgage.  When rates go back down, they will resume paying down their principal.   

Another option, would be to convert their variable rate mortgage to a fixed rate.  Considering shorter term mortgages (1, 2 or even 3-year terms) could be a way to get off the variable rate rollercoaster and wait for interest rates to settle down in the coming months/years. 



Mortgage Minute - August 2022 ***Volume 44***

Sean Humphries - Mortgage Broker

Dominion Lending Centres - Edge Financial

sean@torontolending.ca
(647) 293-3128
https://seanhmortgages.ca/

Sean - Facebook Sean - Instagram Sean - Twitter Sean - Linkedin

Are We Making Things Worse?

 

One narrative that we are seeing is that the supply of homes is improving as buyer demand sits on the sidelines, which could make homes less expensive in the long run.  Benjamin Tal mused that housing could even become more expensive because of the cost of construction.  

“The significant and rapid increase in interest rates, along with surging construction costs and a lack of available labour make projects that only yesterday looked promising, totally uneconomical. In fact, we might be in the process of making the situation worse,” Tal wrote.

Instead of greater affordability, the opposite could be happening.  

As building becomes more expensive, more builders are pulling out of projects or putting plans on the backburner.  This will add more stress to the real estate market when buyers inevitably return.  With more people coming to Canada every year, the cost of buying a home in Toronto will increase and the current scenario might be adding gas to the fire. 



Resources for Hoarding Situations

 

It wasn't the TV debut that I would have preferred, but I was on the news this week discussing the fatal fire that occurred on my street.  

Unfortunately, my neighbour passed away in the fire.  Firefighters were unable to enter the home because of the number of possessions and garbage that had filled the home.  

We had called the city on occasion over the years when the junk overflowed in the yard, but we had no idea that level of hoarding that was taking place in the residence.

It is often not possible for hoarders to help themselves, and often family members can be unable emotionally or physically to help.  

There are services set up in Toronto, and I'm sure other municipalities for these situations to get the residences help.  If you know of anyone in your family or neighbourhood that is suffering from this disease, call 311 (in Toronto) or your municipality for assistance.

Here is a specialized program for Inter-Divisional Enhanced Responsiveness to Vulnerability: https://www.toronto.ca/community-people/public-safety-alerts/community-safety-programs/spider/ 



Foreclosure List in Greater Toronto Area

 

Power of Sales Toronto

Power of Sales Aurora

Power of Sales Barrie

Power of Sales Brampton

Power of Sales Clarington

Power of Sales Georgina

Power of Sales Hamilton

Power of Sales Innisfil

Power of Sales Kawartha Lakes

Power of Sales Markham

Power of Sales Milton

Power of Sales Mississauga

Power of Sales Newmarket

Power of Sales Oakville

Power of Sales Oshawa

Power of Sales Richmond Hill

Power of Sales Toronto

Power of Sales Vaughan

Power of Sales Whitby

Power of Sales Whitchurch-Stouffville



Tired of Renting? First Time Home Buyer Webinar

 

I'm hosting a First Time Home Buyer Webinar on Wednesday August 24th at 7:00 pm.

Join us and discover:
  •  How much can you afford?
  •  What are the cash requirements?
  •  How much do properties cost?
  •  Is now a good time to buy?
  •  How can we help you?

Email me if you are interested.

I'm looking forward to seeing you there!



What's Happening with Rates?

 

What's happening with Rates?

Fixed interest rates for purchases under $1M have come down below 5%, with purchases over $1M and refinances still in the mid-5% range.  Variables are holding steady approximately 1% less than the comparable fixed rates.  

The Bank of Canada is again expected to raise the overnight lending rate by .50% in September, which will raise variable interest rates by .50% to .75% and again further reduce purchasing power.  Unless…

The US Primary Elections and Interest Rates

It seems like a foregone conclusion that the Bank of Canada will continue to raise interest rates in September.  This is further supported by the Federal Reserve in the US that stated this week that rates will need to continue to increase. 

The US midterm elections have begun and there is tremendous pressure being placed on the Biden administration to get the economy back on track.  There haven't been many success stories for this government, and the Republican representatives will continue to hammer this point over the next few weeks.  

There will be some political pressure to get the US economy rolling over the next few months.  This administration is looking for some wins and getting the economy back on track by lowering, or holding interest rates might be one way to do it.  

Whether we are technically in a recession or not, is beside the point.  The economy has slowed, and that is not politically advantageous over the next few months.  The rate decisions should not be politically motivated, but it is fallacy to believe that the rate policy is not at least somewhat influenced by the current political situation.  

From Sherry Cooper, Dominion Lending Centres Chief Economist

In other news, Bloomberg reports that "US employers added more than double the number of jobs forecast, illustrating rock-solid labour demand that tempers recession worries and suggests the Federal Reserve will press on with steep interest-rate hikes to thwart inflation." So much for a Fed pivot. The idea that the bond market rallied on the premature news of a US recession made no sense at this point in the cycle. 

Similarly, the Bank of Canada is still likely to hike the policy rate by 75 basis points when they meet again on September 7. That would take the prime rate up to 5.45%. Currently, the 5-year government of Canada bond yield is 2.87%, well below its peak of 3.6% in mid-June. Consequently, we may see variable mortgage rates rise above fixed rates before year-end. 



Day Trip to Canada's Wonderland

 

We went to Wonderland on Friday of the long weekend along with everyone else in the GTA...

We had some fun on the rollercoasters and at the Waterpark.  

I'm not going to say that I'm old, but I'm not young anymore.  I was able to handle the rides in my youth.  I may be stepping back down to the teacups for my next adventure at Wonderland!  



Mortgage Minute - July 2022 ***Volume 43***

Sean Humphries - Mortgage Broker

Dominion Lending Centres - Edge Financial

sean@torontolending.ca
(647) 293-3128
https://seanhmortgages.ca/

Sean - Facebook Sean - Instagram Sean - Twitter Sean - Linkedin

Why should I care about inflation?

 

Runaway inflation on our consumer goods and services can cause consumers to panic-buy large purchases and stockpile food.  When prices seem like they are going higher and higher consumers believe that they would be better off making large purchases now rather than wait for later when they really need it.  This pushes demand for goods higher, which in turn raises prices as supply for these goods diminishes. In reaction to higher prices and the overall cost of living, people demand higher wages.  It is a reactionary and cyclical phenomenon, which eventually devalues our dollar versus the rest of the world, and weakens our economy.

Hot Take

I think the inflationary pressure that we are hearing in the media is a lot of noise.  The real issues are supply chain (particularly Covid-related shutdowns in China) and the war in Ukraine.  When the supply chain resolves itself, and we have had a full-cycle of increased inflation, it will come back to normal levels.  Inflation is measured year-over-year.  

We are already seeing a decrease in gas prices at the pump, as the threat of a recession becomes more real, people are travelling less and business are not spending as much. 

Prices for wheat and soy beans have dropped to their pre-Ukrainian war level, which means that the war is no longer effecting our food prices as severely.  



Bike Ride to Tommy Thompson Park

 

We rode our bikes down to the Leslie Street Spit (Tommy Thompson Park) last week.  The big payoff was tossing big rocks into the water at the end!

It was the first time that we rode from our house and back.  

I quickly discovered that I need a new bike.  I've been riding the same mountain bike since I was a teenager, and it had definitely seen better days.  



Book Recommendations

 

If you’re like me, you love a good book. Here are some recent reads that I can’t recommend enough:

📖 The Untethered Soul: The Journey Beyond Yourself

📖 The Millionaire Next Door: The Surprising Secrets of America's Wealthy

📖 If You're Not First, You're Last: Sales Strategies to Dominate Your Market and Beat Your Competition

After reading these books, you’ll no doubt come away with:

1️⃣ A better understanding of how to get out of your head.

2️⃣ Great wealth building insight.

3️⃣ A strong dose of @grantcardone motivation.

Have you read any of these? Let me know!



Family Camping Adventure

 

We went camping for the Canada Day long weekend with friends at Pinery Provincial Park near Grand Bend. 

It is an amazing provincial park, with access to great swimming, biking, hiking trails, canoeing and kayaking.  Not to mention a really good camp store that sells ice cream!

We actually came home a day early after seeing a torrential rain that was coming on the day we were supposed to pack up and go home.  By that time we had enough marshmallows, smores and bannock!



What's happening with rates

 

On July 13th, The Bank of Canada is more than likely going to raise the overnight lending rate by an additional .50%.  Prime rate will increase 4.20%, which will be .25% higher than where we started at the beginning of the pandemic. The fixed rates are currently in the 5.30% range for purchases over $1M and 5.09% for purchases under $1M with less than 20% down.

Variables are still a good deal at approximately 3.30% for purchases over $1M and 3.00% for purchases under $1M with less than 20% down, depending on the lender and client. 

The variable rates are still the product of choice since people qualify for more and will initially pay a rate 2% lower than the fixed rate equivalent. 

Should I lock in?

Borrowers would be locking into a rate that is the highest that it has been in 14-years.  There’s no advantage to locking in a rate this high when many people have a variable rate below 3%, however the following consideration may help make an informed decision:

- Liquidity: do you have enough liquid assets if borrowing costs surge 200+ basis point?

- 5-Year plan: do you foresee an improvement in your income, kids on the way, job transfer, marriage, divorce?

- Re-qualification: if needed to, could you easily get approved for a new mortgage 3-4 years from the present?



Foreclosure List in Greater Toronto Area

 

Power of Sales Toronto

Power of Sales Aurora

Power of Sales Barrie

Power of Sales Brampton

Power of Sales Clarington

Power of Sales Georgina

Power of Sales Hamilton

Power of Sales Innisfil

Power of Sales Kawartha Lakes

Power of Sales Markham

Power of Sales Milton

Power of Sales Mississauga

Power of Sales Newmarket

Power of Sales Oakville

Power of Sales Oshawa

Power of Sales Richmond Hill

Power of Sales Toronto

Power of Sales Vaughan

Power of Sales Whitby

Power of Sales Whitchurch-Stouffville