2023 housing and interest rate forecasts

Rising interest rates in 2022 drove home sales and prices lower, though price declines have so far been somewhat modest compared to the run-up in prices in recent years.

But what does 2023 hold in store? Below, we’ve compiled an assortment of forecasts, with some predictions for relatively flat-lined growth, while others see further declines on the horizon.

Looking at 2022, projected figures suggest home sales will end the year at 532,545, a 20% decline compared to 2021, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. Home prices, meanwhile, are forecast to end the year up 4.7% to an annual average of $720,255.

Tight supply has been a recurring theme, with CREA noting the months of inventory measure remains historically low, despite improvements in recent months.

“In terms of monthly new supply, the bigger picture is listings are not flooding the market,” CREA noted. With the exception of 2019, November 2022 saw the fewest new listings for that month in 17 years.

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