The Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady And Expects Rate Cuts Later This Year

By Dr Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist Dominion Lending Centres

Today, The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 5% for the fourth consecutive meeting but provided an outlook suggesting that monetary easing will begin by mid-year. The Bank forecasts a soft landing for the Canadian economy, with inflation falling to 2.5% by the end of this year. While some economists predict a recession, the Bank suggests that "growth will likely remain close to zero through the first quarter of 2024" and "strengthen gradually around the middle of 2024." This would be a soft landing. 

While inflation ended 2023 at 3.4%, owing mainly to high and sticky shelter costs, "the Bank expects inflation to remain close to 3% during the first half of this year before gradually easing, returning to the 2% target in 2025. While the slowdown in demand is reducing price pressures in a broader number of CPI components and corporate pricing behaviour continues to normalize, core measures of inflation are not showing sustained declines."

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