Will the Bank of Canada reduce it's overnight rate on June 4th?
The consensus forecast for the Bank of Canada (BOC) rate is a hold at 2.75% for the remainder of 2025, with a potential for further rate cuts in 2026. However, some forecasts suggest two more 0.25% cuts by the end of 2025, bringing the rate down to 2.25%, while others predict three cuts to 2.00%.
Once the headlines go up on June 4th, as always I expect to receive some phone calls asking about "the new mortgage rate of 2.75%" LOL! This is a common misconception because the news outlets assume everyone understands that the BOC "overnight rate" is the rate at which banks borrow money from the govt, and not the rate that the banks charge their customers.
Also the overnight rate only impacts variable rate mortgages. Fixed rates are determined by a different set of dynamics.
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