Mortgage Minute - June 2023 ***Volume 52***

Sean Humphries - Mortgage Broker

Dominion Lending Centres - Edge Financial

sean@torontolending.ca
(647) 293-3128
https://seanhmortgages.ca/

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Happy Father's Day!

 

Join us in honoring all the incredible dads out there this Father's Day, for their unconditional love, sacrifices, and immeasurable impact. Let's make this day a reminder to express our gratitude and affection for those who have shaped our lives in profound ways.

I'm so lucky to have an amazing Dad, and grandfather to our kids. 

This weekend we will be celebrating him, and not to mention his amazing vegetable garden and all the help with my ambitious home renovation projects.  I really couldn't do it without him.  

My Dad is the best Dad.  :)   

Happy Father's Day!



Bank of Canada Increases Rates and Threatens More

 

Well, the Bank of Canada certainly means business.  Many people predicted that the Bank would hold interest rates in June and then more seriously consider an interest rate hike in July.  Instead, the Bank of Canada announced that they have increased its key interest rate by 0.25%. The prime rate will be increased from 6.70% to 6.95%. Therefore, for those who have a variable rate mortgage, your payments may increase by about $15 per month for every $100,000 loan.  This interest rate hike increase seems to be having a similar effect as the full 1% increase from July 2022, which jolted the mindset of the market.  

It's my opinion that the Bank saw the rapidly recovering housing market, and decided that they needed to act now to slow the market.  The last thing the Bank wants is more confidence in the housing market, which is a pillar of the economy.  It sounds backwards to want a slow down in housing, but if we are going to get back down to a more manageable 2% inflation, home prices can not be taking off.  Higher home prices means higher upward pressure on wages, which are already steadily increasing 5% year over year.  

Global inflation is coming down, reflecting lower energy prices compared to a year ago, but underlying inflation still remains high. The Bank may need to continue to raise interest rates further to get inflation down to the 2% target

In the first quarter of 2023, Canada's economy was stronger than expected, with GDP growth of 3.1%. Spending on interest-sensitive goods increased and housing market activity has also picked up recently. Excess demand in the economy has been more persistent than anticipated, and there is a continued demand for labour due to higher immigration and participation rates.

CPI inflation was up to 4.4% in April, the first increase in 10 months. Prices for goods and services are higher than expected. The Bank expects inflation to ease to around 3% in the summer. However, with core inflation in the 3.5% - 4% range in the past few months and excess demand persisting, there are concerns that CPI inflation could get stuck above above the 2% target.  

Based on this, the Governing Council has decided to raise the interest rate. Reducing money supply continues to complement the interest rate, and the dynamics of core inflation and outlook for CPI inflation will continue to be assessed. The Bank remains committed to restoring price stability for Canadians and achieving the 2% inflation target.

The next Bank of Canada announcement will be on July 12, 2023.  

If you are feeling the pinch with your mortgage payments, please contact me discuss your options. 



12 ways to save money during these tough times

 

It's crucial to be mindful of your finances and find ways to save money. Here are 12 tips to help you save during these challenging times:

1. Create a budget: Develop a comprehensive budget that outlines your income and expenses. This will help you understand where your money is going and identify areas where you can cut back.

2. Cut unnecessary expenses: Review your expenses and eliminate non-essential items or services. Cancel unused subscriptions, reduce dining out, and prioritize essential purchases.

3. Cook at home: Eating out can be expensive. Instead, prepare meals at home using cost-effective ingredients. Plan your meals in advance, make a shopping list, and avoid impulse purchases.

4. Reduce energy consumption: Lower your electricity and heating bills by turning off lights when not in use, using energy-efficient appliances, adjusting your thermostat, and insulating your home.

5. Minimize entertainment expenses: Look for affordable or free entertainment options such as local community events, parks, and libraries. Take advantage of streaming services instead of expensive cable packages.

6. Shop smart: Before making a purchase, compare prices online, use coupons or discount codes, and consider buying used or secondhand items. Delay non-essential purchases to avoid impulsive buying.

7. Save on transportation: If possible, use public transportation, carpool, or walk/bike instead of driving. Maintain your vehicle properly to avoid costly repairs and conserve fuel.

8. Negotiate bills and expenses: Contact your service providers, such as internet, cable, or insurance companies, and negotiate for better rates or discounts. Many companies are willing to work with customers during tough economic times.

9.  Reduce debt: Pay off high-interest debt as quickly as possible. Prioritize your payments and consider consolidating or refinancing loans to get better interest rates.

10. Build an emergency fund: Set aside a portion of your income each month into an emergency savings account. Having a financial cushion can help you deal with unexpected expenses without going into debt.

11. Avoid unnecessary credit card debt: Minimize the use of credit cards and pay off the balance in full each month. If you must use credit, do so responsibly and consider low-interest options.

12. Increase your income: Explore ways to boost your income, such as taking up a side gig, freelancing, or monetizing a hobby. Use your skills or talents to generate additional revenue.

Remember, saving money requires discipline and conscious decision-making. By adopting these tips and making small changes to your lifestyle, you can make a significant difference in your financial well-being.



Foreclosure List in Greater Toronto Area

 

Power of Sales Toronto

Power of Sales Aurora

Power of Sales Barrie

Power of Sales Brampton

Power of Sales Clarington

Power of Sales Georgina

Power of Sales Hamilton

Power of Sales Innisfil

Power of Sales Kawartha Lakes

Power of Sales Markham

Power of Sales Milton

Power of Sales Mississauga

Power of Sales Newmarket

Power of Sales Oakville

Power of Sales Oshawa

Power of Sales Richmond Hill

Power of Sales Toronto

Power of Sales Vaughan

Power of Sales Whitby

Power of Sales Whitchurch-Stouffville



Is Your Mortgage Coming Up for Renewal?

 

If your mortgage is coming up for renewal in the next year, it might be worth a conversation to lock in a rate now.  We are seeing rates continue to go up, and if they continue to go up, it might make sense to pay a penalty to lock in a lower rate before your mortgage is up for renewal. 

Here are some options of what you can do when your mortgage term matures:

1. Renew at the existing lender

2. Switch to a new lender that is offering a lower rate or better terms

3. Increase your mortgage to pull out equity (cash) out to:   

      3a. Consolidate debts

      3b. Do renovations

      3c. Purchase a rental property   

      3d. Purchase a new primary residence.

4. Decrease (pay down) your mortgage if you have the extra cash on hand

5. Set up a home equity line of credit

6. Set up a re-advanceable mortgage to get access to equity in the future

7. Sell the house and escape the mortgage payout penalty

Please let me know if you have questions about any of these.



Fixed Rates: Up Big... For Now

 

The Bank of Canada raised interest rates by .25% last week, but the real action has been with the increase in the fixed interest rates, which have gone up by as much as .80%.

From the last Bank of Canada meeting, it was quite evident that the Bank intends on raising the interest rates further and it's not clear on when it might stop.  

The bond market has reacted accordingly.  Following the meeting fixed interest rates have started to increase for all terms.  For example, 3-year fixed rates have risen by .80% at some lenders.  The increases started a few weeks before the Bank's meeting and have conitnued in the week since.  

Instead of moving in lockstep with the Bank of Canada's rates, the fixed rate terms are much more volatile, and can have big swings within a matter of weeks.  Fixed rates are determined based on projections of future Bank of Canada interest rates, rather than the current policy.  The current belief is that the Bank of Canada's policy rate will need to be higher for longer than initially predicted, and this is pushing fixed interest rates higher than we've seen in a very long time.  

A popular narrative about six weeks ago was that the Bank of Canada would consider decreasing the policy rate by the end of 2023.  That idea has been squashed, and the prospect of a near-term rate decrease seems far fetched.  I don't think we will see a rate decrease from the Bank of Canada until the second half of 2024.  

The next swing in fixed interest rates will largely depend on the market's confidence that the Bank of Canada rate will keep rates high.  The Bank is working hard at confirming that it will keep rates high for as long as needed to bring inflation back down to the 2% target.  Since the fixed rates are largely based on predictions and speculation, I expect that news of a slowing economy in Canada and the US will bring the short term interest rates down again.  

When we look at the different parts of the economy that are sensitive to changes in interest rates, like manufacturing, construction, real estate, financial services, retail, and wholesale sectors, we see that they didn't do so well in March. They actually shrank by 0.3 percent compared to the previous month. And this has been happening quite often recently, with 11 out of the past 12 months showing either no growth or a decrease in these areas. Last year, around this time, there was a positive trend of one percent, but now it has swung the other way and is at minus 1.5 percent, which is the lowest it has been since June 2020.

It seems like this data is being ignored in favour of more headline grabbing statistics like the housing market recovery and consumer purchases.  

My original prediction was that the Bank of Canada would not be raising rates in June or July this year, but instead continue to talk the economy down and threaten to keep rates higher.  I believe this would have been the right approach considering that the previous interest rate hikes are still working their way through the economy.  I believe that the Bank has already surpassed the "goldilocks" rate of a balanced economy, which will become evident before the end of 2023, as we stare down a deeper recession than necessary.  

If more of these factors start to become evident over the next few weeks and months, expect fixed rates to come back down to earth in anticipation of the Bank of Canada lowering the policy rate.  



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